Mega Millions vs Powerball: Comparing the Odds

Mega Millions and Powerball are the two biggest lottery games in the United States. Both offer life-changing jackpots, but their number formats, prize structures, and odds differ in meaningful ways. Here is a direct comparison.

Number Ranges

Mega Millions: Pick 5 main numbers from 1 to 70, plus 1 Mega Ball from 1 to 25.

Powerball: Pick 5 main numbers from 1 to 69, plus 1 Powerball from 1 to 26.

Mega Millions has a slightly larger main number pool (70 vs 69) but a smaller bonus ball pool (25 vs 26). These differences directly affect the odds.

Jackpot Odds

The odds of winning the Mega Millions jackpot (matching all 5 main numbers + the Mega Ball) are approximately 1 in 302,575,350.

The odds of winning the Powerball jackpot (matching all 5 main numbers + the Powerball) are approximately 1 in 292,201,338.

Powerball's jackpot odds are slightly better — about 3.4% easier to hit. The difference comes from the smaller main number pool (69 vs 70), which has a bigger effect than the slightly larger bonus pool.

Prize Tier Comparison

Both games have 9 prize tiers, ranging from matching just the bonus ball (smallest prize) to matching all numbers (jackpot). The middle tiers differ:

• Match 5 (no bonus): Mega Millions pays $1 million; Powerball pays $1 million.
• Match 4 + bonus: Mega Millions pays $10,000; Powerball pays $50,000.
• Match 4 (no bonus): Mega Millions pays $500; Powerball pays $100.

Powerball tends to offer better payouts at the “match 4 + bonus” tier, while Mega Millions is more generous at the “match 4 only” level.

Overall Odds of Winning Any Prize

Your overall odds of winning any prize (any tier) are about 1 in 24 for both Mega Millions and Powerball. The vast majority of these wins are the smallest tier (bonus ball only), paying $2.

Historical Jackpot Sizes

Both games have produced jackpots exceeding $1 billion. The largest lottery jackpot in US history was a $2.04 billion Powerball prize in November 2022. Mega Millions holds the second spot with a $1.537 billion jackpot in October 2018.

Jackpot size depends on ticket sales and rollover history, not just odds. Both games produce massive jackpots regularly.

Which Game Has Better Odds?

Powerball has slightly better jackpot odds, but the difference is marginal. Both games are designed to be extremely difficult to win. The choice between them often comes down to personal preference, current jackpot size, and which game is available in your state.

Cloverly lets you analyze both games side by side — compare frequency data, run probability calculations, and explore the full draw history for each.